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唐三一教授学术讲座预告

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讲座题目Impact of individual behaviour change on the spread of emerging infectious diseases

讲座时间:20171120日(星期一)

讲座地点:9号楼924学术报告厅

主讲人: 唐三一教授

摘要:Human behaviour plays an important role in the spread of emerging infectious diseases, and understanding the influence of behaviour changes on epidemics can be key to improving control efforts. However, how the dynamics of individual behaviour changes affects the development of emerging infectious disease is a key public health issue. To develop different formula for individual behavior change and introduce how to embed it into a dynamic model of infectious diseases, we choose A/H1N1 and Ebola as typical examples, combined with the epidemic reported cases and media related news reports. Thus, the logistic model with the health belief model is used to determine behaviour decisions through the health belief model constructs. Furthermore, we propose 4 candidate infectious disease models without and with individual behaviour change and use approximate Bayesian computation based on sequential Monte Carlo method for model selection. The main results indicate that the classical compartment model without behaviour change and the model with average rate of behaviour change depicted by an exponential function could fit the observed data best. The results provide a new way on how to choose an infectious disease model to predict the disease prevalence trend or to evaluate the influence of intervention measures on disease control. However, sensitivity analyses indicate that the accumulated number of hospital notifications and deaths could be largely reduced as the rate of behaviour change increases. Therefore, in terms of mitigating emerging infectious diseases, both media publicity focused on how to guide people's behaviour change and positive responses of individuals are critical.

主讲人简介:唐三一,2003年中国科学院数学所获得博士学位,2003年至2007年在英国Warwick大学从事基因调控网络识别、数据分析的交叉学科研究。此后先后到加拿大、美国、日本、德国、法国等国知名大学从事合作研究或作大会特邀报告,建立了广泛的国际合作关系。主要从事生物数学和生物信息学研究,提出了一系列重要的建模思想,发展了新的理论分析技巧、模型辨识和数值研究方法。发表SCI论文100多篇,被SCI杂志引用超过2000次,4篇ESI高被引论文,连续三年入选Elsevier中国"高被引"学者榜单。完成或主持5项数理、信息、医学等不同学部国家自然科学基金5项(4项面上和1项中美生物医学国际合作),参与1项国家自然科学基金重点项目(第二参与人),研究成果获陕西省自然科学二等奖1项(第一完成人)。三次应邀出席生物数学国际大会并作大会特邀报告,部分研究得到中国日报、加拿大环球邮报、Elesvier出版社等国内外媒体的广泛报道,在公共卫生领域产生了深远的社会影响。


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